Credits: Photo by Manu San Felix

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In our latest study, we explored the potentially effects of climate change on seagrass ecosystems, which play a crucial role in marine habitats. These habitat-forming species face growing threats, yet there remains a critical gap in global predictive frameworks that could help forecast their future distribution and richness. Our research aimed to fill this gap by estimating future changes in seagrass species richness, community composition, and identifying potential areas of climatic refugia under different climate scenarios.

Key findings

Global Scope: Using a globally integrated approach, we assessed seagrass species distributions from 2010-2020, and modeled their future under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for the period from 2090-2100.

Current Extent: The current global extent of seagrass habitats is estimated at 917,169 km², with high species richness particularly concentrated in regions like Temperate Australasia, the Indo-Pacific, and the Temperate North Pacific.

Future Projections: Our projections indicate that climate change will drive a significant spatial redistribution of seagrass species, including expansions into the Arctic, losses in lower latitudes, and shifts into deeper waters. Interestingly, despite these redistributions, the total global extent occupied by seagrasses is predicted to remain relatively stable, with only a 5% change overall.

Species Richness & Climate Refugia: As climate scenarios become more extreme (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), species richness is predicted to increase in polar regions while declining in tropical zones. Climatic refugia, critical for the survival of many species, are expected to persist but diminish under high-emission scenarios. Even in areas where seagrass species persist, we anticipate widespread changes in community composition.

Why this matters?

This study offers a valuable baseline for understanding and anticipating the impact of climate change on seagrass ecosystems. Seagrasses provide essential services such as carbon sequestration, coastal protection, and habitats for marine biodiversity. As these ecosystems shift, proactive measures will be necessary to mitigate the cascading consequences for marine life and the human communities that depend on them.